Jakartass Home thoughts from abroad. Alien thoughts from home.

This is the traditional greeting at the start of the Chinese New Year, the Spring Festival welcoming the end of Winter.

“Congratulations” for surviving a non-existent winter in Indonesia seems incongruous, and if “be prosperous” is a wish that the recipient should get a lot of money, then that seems inappropriate given the inequalities that money brings.

If, however, the greeting can mean that one hopes that recipients will have a successful year in terms of doing good for the community at large by not exploiting anyone and thus achieving good karma, then that is what I wish for the many students and colleagues who are celebrating today.

… when Jakarta goes quiet. It's the start of a week long holiday, and possibly longer, and the best time to not go anywhere outside Jakarta.

Yep, it seems as though nearly all those all practise mudik, the return to home villages at Idul Fitri to celebrate their 'celebrityness' because they've spent a year grafting away to pay for mudik, are on their way. Convoys of those pesky little motorbikes are doing their best to avoid big buses whose usually manic drivers are suffering withdrawal symptoms as their urine is regularly tested for excessive quantities of Red Bull.

The police have placed snipers at those black spots where premen (thugs) are prevalent, and trains are packed to "150% capacity".

The banks are shut for the duration as are several financial institutions. That shouldn't be a problem though as the country is awash with debt; all and sundry having stocked up on life's little luxuries because this is what everyone has been grafting away for since the last time they came back to Jakarta.

One notable lass, a pembantu (maid), was highlighted in the Post because she'd bought the latest model of a handphone to replace the one she bought last year, just so she wouldn't feel embarrassed using an old one. Of course, if she lives in a remote kampung, there's no guarantee that she can get a signal.

Some won't make it home because they're in jail because of their graft, and for that we can give praise.

Mind you, it hasn't been easy convincing 'Er Indoors that she doesn't have to spend everything in my bank account just to have some of her famous beef rendang in stock for all those visitors who probably won't come because they're out of town.

Whatever, the sun is shining and there's only the occasional motorbike without a silencer revving by to disturb my peace.

Mohon ma'af lahir dan batin is the traditional phrase used to say at this time. Roughly translated it means 'Please forgive me for any wrongdoings I may have done to you in the past year, and please accept my sincerest apologies for what I might do to you in the next'. This seems highly appropriate for those with arrested development of moral values.

One such is the governor of the South Sulawesi province who has banned members of the Ahmadyah Muslim community from conducting religious activities durung the Idul Fitri holiday in case they spark violence among mainstream Muslims.

I'm not a Muslim, although it says so on the piece of paper saying that I'm married because the government of this supposedly secular state decrees that everyone must 'belong' to a religion, and one that believes in One God. Still, what I do know about Ramadhan, the fasting month, is that devotees should not succomb to temptation. It seems strange to me that certain 'fundamentalists' Muslims are so weak that they have to remove all temptations in case their faith isn't strong enough to overcome them.

Thus, the 'special' province of Yogyakarta has banned the sale of alcohol. Mind you, the Jakartass correspondent there reports that "there still appear to be places selling drinks albeit discreetly." For this, he gives thanks.

So, what to do in Jakarta? If you have the herd instinct, then head to Taman Mini Indonesia Indah (TMII), Ancol Dreamland or Ragunan Zoo. It may be somewhat easier getting there than in previous years because the Transjakarta Busway has added a few extra routes for the duration.

But you won't see me or my tribe at any of them because I'm all for the quiet life. Our Kid (14) has been very controlled in his fasting, so you may see us at Ya 'Usual towards the end of next week when he can eat in public in daylight hours.

Until then ….

I’m not Nostradamus or Permadi or, in spite of my new eyes, much of a seer. So I’ve had to dig around to find out the predictions of those who’d have us believe they know what’s going to happen in Indonesia.

There is a Mr. Juseleeno cited in Disaster Predictions.com who is famous for having predicted back in 1996 “that 7:00am 26th Dec, 2004, South Asia will be attacked by 8.9 earthquake, at the same time will get the tsunami, the area will be Aceh Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Maladiv, Bombay. And many people will be dead……”

It’s said that he wrote to the governments of these countries. A reply apparently came from then President Megawati who wrote “about the 2004 earthquake and tsunami, to prevent the disaster, we must do a lot of things, but in another hand, we can do nothing.

”It’s probably just as well that she is thought to have predicted that she wouldn’t win the next presidential election. SBY did and according to noted Indonesian “shaman” Permadi, the Aceh tsunami was all SBY’s fault because he was born under a bad sign.

Permadi is a member of the legislature representing the Great Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra) set up by the notorious human rights violator retired Lt-General Prabowo Subianto as a vehicle for his own presidential ambitions. ‘Er Indoors thinks Permadi is a good guy because he is a paranormal: I think he’s abnormal.

Monte, who calls himself ‘World Psychic’, claims to have remarkable prescience. He is so proud of his ability that he says [his] services are available to ANY United States Federal /Military Agency that would like to employ [his] services for the use to Protect the interest of the United States of America or its Constitutional Citizens.

Now I have no way of knowing, apart from Wikileaks, whether any Military Agency has actually taken him up on his offer, but naturally, I was interested to see if he had foretoldl any events in Indonesia in the past year, Hey presto and wow, he predicted this: Indonesia will have Great tidal waves/Tsunami/storms during the years now to 2011.

But then, coincidentally, so did Alizon, and so, it being SBY’s fault, Mentawai was devastated.

It’s Monte I don’t trust, though, partly because his English is way below par, but mainly because he says that he’s several months behind on updated a lot of content on [his] Prediction pages [because] it’s very time consuming to keep up but [he] should be close to doing so in the near future..But exactly when, Monte, when?

Renato Beninatto is rather more prosaic as she says we should “be prepared for increased demand for Indonesian [because] Indonesia is right after the U.S.in numbers of Facebook users.”

Indonesia is also right after the UK and China in its support of Manchester United. A ‘genuine’ football fan is considered to be someone born and raised within the catchment area of a club. That is why I’ll always be an Addick even though I doubt I’ll ever get back to the Valley. It’s often noted that few Manchester United supporters have their roots in that famous city. Those that do may well move away – hi to Mark and family in Bali. Those that don’t, such as this group of United in Indonesia, may well become fanatical to prove their faith. They have predicted here that their idols will win everything in 2011, or maybe not,

Apart from my profound prediction and hope that in fact Arsenal will win the EPL, my prognostications for those of us here are that things next year are going to be much the same as this year.

A few corrupt public officials, such as Gayus Tambunan and Police Commissioner General Susno Duadji will be sent down for more years than the public expect, but that’s the fate of repentant whistle blowers the world over.Whistle blowers here are rarely protected here because Indonesia’s Witness and Victim Protection Agency (LPSK) is toothless. Also, there are seemingly just three lawyer firms prepared to represent local whistle blowers.

There are numerous human rights cases whose victims and families seek closure. They won’t get it, but like the Friends of Munir will keep on battling.In spite of Gov. Fuzzy Bodoh’s promo broadcast internationally by National Geographic, Jakartans won’t see much if any amelioration of the current chaos.

One of the expectations Assange and Wikileaks had was that the public would engage with the released data, and start researching it, carrying out analyses and issuing reports on it. The recently launched Indoleaks.org has published documents which verify what interested folk already knew: Suharto’s regime was founded on lies which he and his cohorts mythologised.

I hope online networking, be it via Twitter, Facebook or blogs such as mine, will lead to an increase in community participation beyond the ethnic, religious and neighbourhood boundaries into the areas of concern which bother us all. We can all be cyber-radicals and change our world. We can all be whistleblowers; the lies and platitudes of those elected by the rakyat (citizenry) and the ‘public servants’ politicians are expected to direct need exposure, as well as their errors of omission, arrogance, sheer incompetence and malfeasance.

All we get at present is style over substance; so I look forward to the online presentation of alternative ideas, which give due consideration to their consequences – positive or negative – for the society at large.

That said, this is a picture of an updated version of the original Commodore 64

Back in – erm – ’82/3, it was the first computer I bought,with the hope and expectation that Son No.! would learn how to operate it. Back then I knew that personal computers had a future. It may similarly take a while for my other predictions to come to pass.

Meanwhile, I wish for you what you would wish for yourselves within the realm of what’s good for you is good for me.